Buffalo Eviction Risk: High

It sits 2.5 points above the Erie County average of 6.8. The dominant input is local political climate at 8/10.

The poverty rate is 29%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. 18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Housing insecurity runs 24.1% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

At $950 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Buffalo commands. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.