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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Old Orchard Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095001302 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,011 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

39095001302 is a census tract in the Old Orchard area of Toledo, OH. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,011. This is renter territory: 94% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48% Stable renters 46% Owners 6%
Tract context
Occupied units1,129
Renter share94.2%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate31.1%
Median income$31,152

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Old Orchard
Very High
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#41 of 121 tracts In Toledo
Elevated
Within county
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#42 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#554 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6714, -83.6092 · click any tract to drill in

Why Old Orchard scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
31.1% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$939 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Old Orchard compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Old Orchard risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.45.4This tracttract 001302Toledo: 4.04.0Toledoparent cityCounty: 4.24.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,099Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 14.94%Avg annual filing rate
  • 24.2%Peak (2014)
  • 160Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2003 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390950013022003: 58 filings (5.90/100 renter HHs)2004: 96 filings (9.77/100 renter HHs)2005: 128 filings (14.73/100 renter HHs)2006: 141 filings (16.23/100 renter HHs)2007: 100 filings (11.51/100 renter HHs)2008: 119 filings (13.69/100 renter HHs)2009: 137 filings (15.77/100 renter HHs)2010: 124 filings (12.58/100 renter HHs)2011: 148 filings (15.43/100 renter HHs)2012: 145 filings (15.12/100 renter HHs)2013: 178 filings (18.56/100 renter HHs)2014: 232 filings (24.19/100 renter HHs)2015: 185 filings (19.29/100 renter HHs)2016: 148 filings (15.07/100 renter HHs)2018: 160 filings (16.29/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 176% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Old Orchard. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Old Orchard

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $31,152, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. The poverty rate is 31%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Severe burden reaches 21%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against Lucas County at 41.3%, 51% of renters here are cost-burdened. Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 7.8/10.

Against the Lucas County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. Food insecurity runs 26.6% against 17.8% nationally.

Court records carry 2,099 eviction filings across 15 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2014 at 24.2% of renter households.

This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095001302

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095001302?

Census tract 39095001302 in the Old Orchard neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095001302?

Median gross rent is $939/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095001302?

31.1% of residents in tract 39095001302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,011.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095001302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 21th, minority 60th, housing 77th.
Q5

Is tract 39095001302 considered part of Old Orchard?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095001302 fall within Old Orchard (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095001302?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,099 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095001302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.94% of renter households, peaking at 24.2% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39095001302 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39095001302 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095001302 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39095001302 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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