Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

Middle Grounds Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095005102 · Lucas County, OH · pop 1,557 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

With a score of 4.7/10, tract 39095005102 in the Middle Grounds area of Toledo, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,557 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10.

Risk score

4.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 25% Owners 65%

Tract context

Occupied units534

Renter share35.0%

SVI overall0.71

Poverty rate20.3%

Median income$55,938

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6352, -83.5289 · click any tract to drill in

Why Middle Grounds scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Toledo

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.8

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

20.3% poverty · this tract

5.1

Supply constraint

$1,028 rent vs county FMR

4.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Toledo

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Toledo

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Toledo

4.0

How Middle Grounds compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 71

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

74%Socioeconomic
85%Household composition
77%Racial/ethnic minority
32%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
47%Grade C
33%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Middle Grounds. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

22.5%Housing insecurity
16.8%Utility-shutoff threat
30.4%Food insecurity
28.8%SNAP enrollment
14.8%Transit barriers
16.8%No health insurance
22.1%Frequent mental distress
38.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Middle Grounds

Against Lucas County at 41.3%, 28% of renters here are cost-burdened. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. SNAP participation runs 28.8% against 15.2% nationally.

Running cool, state political climate reads 2.4/10. The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Housing insecurity runs 22.5% against 14.2% nationally.

Average gross rent is $1,028, 14% above the Toledo average. Severe burden reaches 8%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 55th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.4/10.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Lucas County average of 4.2 closely.

Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $55,938.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095005102

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095005102?

Census tract 39095005102 in the Middle Grounds neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39095005102?

Median gross rent is $1,028/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095005102?

20.3% of residents in tract 39095005102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,557.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095005102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 85th, minority 77th, housing 32th.

Is tract 39095005102 considered part of Middle Grounds?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095005102 fall within Middle Grounds (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 39095005102 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39095005102 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095005102 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39095005102 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 33% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.