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Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

Middle Grounds Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095005200 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,964 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

The Elevated-tier score of $1/10 for census tract 39095005200 reflects conditions in the Middle Grounds neighborhood of Toledo, Ohio. That is riskier than about 74% of US census tracts.

About 46% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 8% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $756 a month against an average household income of $42,153 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. About 35% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 19% Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,240
Renter share34.7%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate30.8%
Median income$42,153

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Middle Grounds
Very High
Within parent city
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#22 of 121 tracts In Toledo
High
Within county
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#294 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6238, -83.5352 · click any tract to drill in

Why Middle Grounds scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
30.8% poverty · this tract
7.7
Supply constraint
$756 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Middle Grounds compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Middle Grounds risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.75.7This tracttract 005200Toledo: 3.33.3Toledoparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 495Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 6.72%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.6%Peak (2003)
  • 24Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2003 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390950052002003: 48 filings (10.64/100 renter HHs)2004: 39 filings (8.64/100 renter HHs)2005: 24 filings (4.72/100 renter HHs)2006: 35 filings (6.88/100 renter HHs)2007: 36 filings (7.08/100 renter HHs)2008: 15 filings (2.95/100 renter HHs)2009: 33 filings (6.49/100 renter HHs)2010: 36 filings (8.02/100 renter HHs)2011: 36 filings (6.87/100 renter HHs)2012: 27 filings (5.15/100 renter HHs)2013: 34 filings (6.49/100 renter HHs)2014: 36 filings (6.87/100 renter HHs)2015: 39 filings (7.44/100 renter HHs)2016: 33 filings (7.27/100 renter HHs)2018: 24 filings (5.29/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Middle Grounds. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Middle Grounds

What moves this score most is economic stress at 7.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 11% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095005200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095005200?

Census tract 39095005200 in the Middle Grounds neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095005200?

Median gross rent is $756/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095005200?

30.8% of residents in tract 39095005200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,964.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095005200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 75th, minority 39th, housing 9th.
Q5

Is tract 39095005200 considered part of Middle Grounds?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095005200 fall within Middle Grounds (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095005200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 495 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095005200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.72% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39095005200 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39095005200 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095005200 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39095005200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 11% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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