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Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Elmhurst Eviction Risk: Lower , Toledo

Tract 39095005803 · Lucas County, OH · pop 1,990 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

39095005803 is a census tract in the Elmhurst area of Toledo, OH. It scores 3.5/10 for landlords. Cost burden runs 23% here against 41.3% across Lucas County.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 11% Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units747
Renter share14.1%
SVI overall0.27
Poverty rate7.6%
Median income$60,067

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Elmhurst
Low
Within parent city
13 th percentile
Rank, 13th percentileLowHigh
#105 of 121 tracts In Toledo
Very Low
Within county
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#107 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
Low
Within state
42 th percentile
Rank, 42nd percentileLowHigh
#1,831 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.7132, -83.6000 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elmhurst scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
7.6% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,047 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Elmhurst compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elmhurst risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.5This tracttract 0058034.0Toledoparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 27

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elmhurst. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elmhurst

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.9/10. 23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.9/10.

At $1,047 a month, rents run 16% over what the rest of Toledo commands. Against the Lucas County average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $60,067.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095005803

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095005803?

Census tract 39095005803 in the Elmhurst neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095005803?

Median gross rent is $1,047/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095005803?

7.6% of residents in tract 39095005803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,990.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095005803?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 27th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 59th, minority 10th, housing 14th.
Q5

Is tract 39095005803 considered part of Elmhurst?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095005803 fall within Elmhurst (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 39095005803 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 39095005803 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095005803 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 39095005803 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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