Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally
Elmhurst Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095006000 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,453 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
The Elevated-tier score of $1/10 for census tract 39095006000 reflects conditions in the Elmhurst neighborhood of Toledo, Ohio. It lands near the 74th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 56% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,023 a month against an average household income of $80,500 a year, roughly 15% of income at the averages. About 36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,026
Renter share36.4%
SVI overall0.44
Poverty rate23.0%
Median income$80,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
36
th percentile
Low
Within county
55
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6992, -83.6183 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmhurst scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
23.0% poverty · this tract
5.8
Supply constraint
$1,023 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Elmhurst compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 44
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 16%Grade B
- 8%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 204Total filings over 15 yrs
- 6.54%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.1%Peak (2012)
- 12Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Elmhurst. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.2%Housing insecurity
- 9.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.3%Food insecurity
- 13.5%SNAP enrollment
- 8.3%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 18.4%Frequent mental distress
- 32.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmhurst
What moves this score most is economic stress at 5.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095006000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095006000?
Census tract 39095006000 in the Elmhurst neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095006000?
Median gross rent is $1,023/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095006000?
23.0% of residents in tract 39095006000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,453.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095006000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 58th, minority 52th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 39095006000 considered part of Elmhurst?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095006000 fall within Elmhurst (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095006000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 204 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095006000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.54% of renter households, peaking at 8.1% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095006000 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095006000 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095006000 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095006000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Birckhead Place
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Northriver
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
East Toledo
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
McComas Village
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Warren-Sherman
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Northlawn
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Bush Street Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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