Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,643 of 84,120 nationally
Elmhurst Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095005902 · Lucas County, OH · pop 4,804 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
Census tract 39095005902 belongs to the Elmhurst neighborhood of Toledo, Ohio. It is home to 4,804 residents and scores 5.1/10, a moderate reading for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #49,222 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 31% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $884 a month while the average household earns $68,214 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 40% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units1,844
Renter share39.9%
SVI overall0.73
Poverty rate15.5%
Median income$68,214
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
24
th percentile
Low
Within county
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.7137, -83.6143 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmhurst scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
15.5% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$884 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Elmhurst compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 73
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 56%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 46%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 45%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,819Total filings over 15 yrs
- 16.80%Avg annual filing rate
- 30.3%Peak (2007)
- 126Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 26% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Elmhurst. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.9%Housing insecurity
- 10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.1%Food insecurity
- 14.7%SNAP enrollment
- 9.2%Transit barriers
- 9.4%No health insurance
- 19.9%Frequent mental distress
- 32.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmhurst
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 4.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Lucas County average of 5.5 and in line with the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 73rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095005902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095005902?
Census tract 39095005902 in the Elmhurst neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095005902?
Median gross rent is $884/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095005902?
15.5% of residents in tract 39095005902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,804.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095005902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 67th, minority 46th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 39095005902 considered part of Elmhurst?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095005902 fall within Elmhurst (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095005902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,819 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095005902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.80% of renter households, peaking at 30.3% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095005902 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095005902 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095005902 scores 4.2/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095005902 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Birckhead Place
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Northriver
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
East Toledo
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
McComas Village
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Warren-Sherman
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Northlawn
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Bush Street Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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