Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Old Furnace District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Youngstown
Tract 39099802702 · Mahoning County, OH · pop 3,043 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 4.4/10, tract 39099802702 in the Old Furnace District area of Youngstown, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,043 residents. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,326
Renter share14.0%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$57,471
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
10
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
60
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Youngstown and the region
Centroid at 41.0761, -80.6890 · click any tract to drill in
Why Old Furnace District scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Youngstown
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$927 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Youngstown
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Youngstown
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Youngstown
8.6
How Old Furnace District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 33%Socioeconomic
- 60%Household composition
- 40%Racial/ethnic minority
- 33%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 14%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 70Total filings over 7 yrs
- 3.92%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.4%Peak (2016)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 25% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Old Furnace District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.2%Food insecurity
- 9.8%SNAP enrollment
- 6.8%Transit barriers
- 7.5%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 29.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Old Furnace District
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10. Running hot, housing-court posture reads 8.6/10.
around a third of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Mahoning County average of 42.6%. Average gross rent is $927, 27% above the Youngstown average. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.8/10.
Court records carry 70 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.4% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 3.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #42,813 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.3/10.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 39099802702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099802702?
Census tract 39099802702 in the Old Furnace District neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39099802702?
Median gross rent is $927/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39099802702?
13.0% of residents in tract 39099802702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,043.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39099802702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 60th, minority 40th, housing 33th.
Q5
Is tract 39099802702 considered part of Old Furnace District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099802702 fall within Old Furnace District (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39099802702?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 70 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 39099802702 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.92% of renter households, peaking at 4.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39099802702 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39099802702 compare to Youngstown overall?
Tract 39099802702 scores 4.4/10, right in line with the parent city of Youngstown at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Youngstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39099802702 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Youngstown
Top eight tracts in Youngstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Kensington
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
La La Land
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Cottage Grove
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Bryn Mawr
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Flint Hill
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Tech Block
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Flint Hill
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Arlington Heights
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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