South Park Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Against Montgomery County at 42.9%, 71% of renters here are cost-burdened. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 45%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Set annual rent against average income of $40,125 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Average gross rent is $1,209, 32% above the Dayton average.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. 65% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Against the Montgomery County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10. Court records carry 236 eviction filings across 17 observed years.

The voucher gap is 12.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The worst year on record was 2006, when 4.7% of renter households were served.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 2.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.