Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally
South Park Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton
Tract 39113003402 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 7,277 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
In the South Park Historic District neighborhood of Dayton, census tract 39113003402 scores 6.2/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than about 80% of US census tracts.
71% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 43% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,209 a month against an average household income of $40,125 a year, roughly 36% of income at the averages. Renters make up 65% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units678
Renter share65.5%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate45.3%
Median income$40,125
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
96
th percentile
Very High
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dayton and the region
Centroid at 39.7438, -84.1723 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Park Historic District scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
45.3% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,209 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5
How South Park Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 48
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 73%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 11%Grade B
- 60%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 236Total filings over 17 yrs
- 2.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.7%Peak (2006)
- 13Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 41% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within South Park Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.0%Housing insecurity
- 10.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 21.3%Food insecurity
- 17.1%SNAP enrollment
- 15.7%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 29.3%Frequent mental distress
- 34.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Park Historic District
What moves this score most is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dayton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Montgomery County average of 5.4 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 48th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 39113003402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003402?
Census tract 39113003402 in the South Park Historic District neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39113003402?
Median gross rent is $1,209/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003402?
45.3% of residents in tract 39113003402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,277.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 1th, minority 32th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 39113003402 considered part of South Park Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003402 fall within South Park Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003402?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 236 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.91% of renter households, peaking at 4.7% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39113003402 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39113003402 compare to Dayton overall?
Tract 39113003402 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39113003402 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dayton
Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Huffman Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Huffman Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
39113004300
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Eagle Ridge
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
39113000200
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
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