Middletown Eviction Risk: Moderate

The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.4/10.

The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.4/10. The filing record is not thin: 378 evictions over 8 years of observation.

SNAP participation runs 7.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.7% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2004 at 12.7% of renter households.

In a typical year about 7.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 46% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 12% of average household income of $104,439, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.