Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

Bayfront Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

Tract 42049000901 · Erie County, PA · pop 2,316 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 42049000901 runs through Bayfront in Erie. With 2,316 residents, it scores 5.7/10 for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #30,723 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 60% of renter households, a severe level, and 34% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $875 monthly, set against $27,243 in average yearly household income, roughly 39% of income at the averages. Renters make up 73% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 29% Owners 27%

Tract context

Occupied units1,007

Renter share73.0%

SVI overall0.80

Poverty rate11.0%

Median income$27,243

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1213, -80.1040 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bayfront scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Erie

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Pennsylvania legislature & governorship

3.4

Economic stress

11.0% poverty · this tract

2.7

Supply constraint

$875 rent vs county FMR

2.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Erie

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Erie

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Erie

5.0

How Bayfront compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

74%Socioeconomic
78%Household composition
44%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
86%Grade B
14%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bayfront. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bayfront

The score leans hardest on eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Erie County average of 5.6 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 80th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049000901

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049000901?

Census tract 42049000901 in the Bayfront neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 42049000901?

Median gross rent is $875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049000901?

11.0% of residents in tract 42049000901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,316.

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049000901?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 78th, minority 44th, housing 81th.

Is tract 42049000901 considered part of Bayfront?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049000901 fall within Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

How does tract 42049000901 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049000901 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 42049000901 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.