Central Eastside Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Erie County average of 42.3%. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.2/10.

The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points. Running hot, economic stress reads 7.9/10.

The filing record is not thin: 479 evictions over 7 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2006 at 16.3% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 13.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.