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Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

Central Eastside Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

Tract 42049002600 · Erie County, PA · pop 4,190 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 42049002600 runs through the Central Eastside area of Erie. With 4,190 residents, it scores $1/10 for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 74% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 31% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,054 a month while the average household earns $53,639 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 24% of occupied homes.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 10% Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,488
Renter share23.5%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$53,639

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Central Eastside
Very Low
Within parent city
23 th percentile
Rank, 23rd percentileLowHigh
#24 of 31 tracts In Erie
Low
Within county
64 th percentile
Rank, 64th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
84 th percentile
Rank, 84th percentileLowHigh
#557 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1161, -80.0529 · click any tract to drill in

Why Central Eastside scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,054 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Central Eastside compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Central Eastside risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.75.7This tracttract 002600Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 154Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 5.69%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.6%Peak (2005)
  • 23Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490026002000: 12 filings (3.19/100 renter HHs)2001: 21 filings (5.59/100 renter HHs)2002: 23 filings (6.12/100 renter HHs)2003: 24 filings (6.38/100 renter HHs)2004: 20 filings (5.32/100 renter HHs)2005: 31 filings (7.60/100 renter HHs)2006: 23 filings (5.64/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 92% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Central Eastside. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Central Eastside

The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 154 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 5.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.6% of renter households in 2005.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 75th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049002600

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002600?

Census tract 42049002600 in the Central Eastside neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049002600?

Median gross rent is $1,054/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002600?

17.3% of residents in tract 42049002600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,190.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 82th, minority 45th, housing 73th.
Q5

Is tract 42049002600 considered part of Central Eastside?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002600 fall within Central Eastside (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002600?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 154 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.69% of renter households, peaking at 7.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049002600 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049002600 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049002600 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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