Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Southwest Erie Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 42049002200 · Erie County, PA · pop 3,714 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 42049002200 covers part of the Southwest Erie area of Erie, PA, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,714. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 69%
Tract context
Occupied units1,549
Renter share31.1%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate17.8%
Median income$73,523
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
58
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Erie and the region
Centroid at 42.0975, -80.0961 · click any tract to drill in
Why Southwest Erie scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
17.8% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$934 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0
How Southwest Erie compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 50
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 52%Socioeconomic
- 81%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 100%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 57Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.22%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.7%Peak (2006)
- 15Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 150% over the past 7 months.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Southwest Erie
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.2/10. Against Erie County at 42.3%, 34% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Court records carry 57 eviction filings across 7 observed years. The worst year on record was 2006, when 3.7% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.5/10.
Against average income of $73,523, annual rent is just 15%. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Erie County average of 4.3 closely. Average gross rent is $934, close to the Erie average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049002200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002200?
Census tract 42049002200 in the Southwest Erie neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049002200?
Median gross rent is $934/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002200?
17.8% of residents in tract 42049002200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,714.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 81th, minority 32th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 42049002200 considered part of Southwest Erie?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002200 fall within Southwest Erie (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 57 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.22% of renter households, peaking at 3.7% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42049002200 compare to Erie overall?
Tract 42049002200 scores 4.6/10, right in line with the parent city of Erie at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42049002200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Erie
Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Lakeside
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Eastside Eagles
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Saint Mary
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
West Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Baldwin Park
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Little Italy
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Midtown
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
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