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Neighborhood · Ranked #19,562 of 84,120 nationally

Southwest Erie Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 42049002200 · Erie County, PA · pop 3,714 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 42049002200 covers the Southwest Erie neighborhood of Erie in Pennsylvania. Home to 3,714 residents, it scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 56% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 34% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $934 monthly, set against $73,523 in average yearly household income, roughly 15% of income at the averages. Renters make up 31% of occupied homes.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 20% Owners 69%
Tract context
Occupied units1,549
Renter share31.1%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate17.8%
Median income$73,523

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Southwest Erie
Moderate
Within parent city
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#26 of 31 tracts In Erie
Very Low
Within county
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#30 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#706 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.0975, -80.0961 · click any tract to drill in

Why Southwest Erie scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
17.8% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$934 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Southwest Erie compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Southwest Erie risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.45.4This tracttract 002200Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 57Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 2.22%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.7%Peak (2006)
  • 15Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490022002000: 6 filings (1.78/100 renter HHs)2001: 11 filings (3.26/100 renter HHs)2002: 3 filings (0.89/100 renter HHs)2003: 4 filings (1.19/100 renter HHs)2004: 6 filings (1.78/100 renter HHs)2005: 12 filings (2.94/100 renter HHs)2006: 15 filings (3.68/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 150% over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Southwest Erie

The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Erie County average of 5.6 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 57 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 2.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.7% of renter households in 2006.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049002200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002200?

Census tract 42049002200 in the Southwest Erie neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049002200?

Median gross rent is $934/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002200?

17.8% of residents in tract 42049002200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,714.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 81th, minority 32th, housing 29th.
Q5

Is tract 42049002200 considered part of Southwest Erie?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002200 fall within Southwest Erie (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 57 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.22% of renter households, peaking at 3.7% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049002200 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049002200 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049002200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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