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Neighborhood · Ranked #10,885 of 84,120 nationally

Marvintown Eviction Risk: Elevated , Erie

Tract 42049002500 · Erie County, PA · pop 2,470 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 42049002500 belongs to the Marvintown area of Erie, Pennsylvania. It is home to 2,470 residents and scores $1/10, an elevated reading for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 74% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 68% of renter households, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $866 monthly, set against $46,033 in average yearly household income, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 14% Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units894
Renter share42.5%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate21.0%
Median income$46,033

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Marvintown
Moderate
Within parent city
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#20 of 31 tracts In Erie
Low
Within county
69 th percentile
Rank, 69th percentileLowHigh
#23 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#398 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1106, -80.0662 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marvintown scores 6.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
21.0% poverty · this tract
5.3
Supply constraint
$866 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Marvintown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Marvintown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.16.1This tracttract 002500Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 174Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 6.48%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.1%Peak (2004)
  • 28Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490025002000: 11 filings (2.99/100 renter HHs)2001: 22 filings (5.98/100 renter HHs)2002: 21 filings (5.71/100 renter HHs)2003: 21 filings (5.71/100 renter HHs)2004: 37 filings (10.05/100 renter HHs)2005: 34 filings (8.17/100 renter HHs)2006: 28 filings (6.73/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 155% over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marvintown

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 5.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 174 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 6.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 10.1% of renter households in 2004.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049002500

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002500?

Census tract 42049002500 in the Marvintown neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049002500?

Median gross rent is $866/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002500?

21.0% of residents in tract 42049002500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,470.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002500?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 95th, minority 61th, housing 67th.
Q5

Is tract 42049002500 considered part of Marvintown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002500 fall within Marvintown (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002500?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 174 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.48% of renter households, peaking at 10.1% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049002500 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049002500 scores 6.1/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049002500 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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