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Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally

Marvintown Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

Tract 42049002500 · Erie County, PA · pop 2,470 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

42049002500 is a census tract in the Marvintown area of Erie, PA. It scores 5.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,470 residents. roughly two in three of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Erie County average of 42.3%.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 14% Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units894
Renter share42.5%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate21.0%
Median income$46,033

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Marvintown
Moderate
Within parent city
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#21 of 31 tracts In Erie
Low
Within county
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#902 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1106, -80.0662 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marvintown scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
21.0% poverty · this tract
5.3
Supply constraint
$866 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Marvintown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Marvintown risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.5This tracttract 0025004.4Erieparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 174Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 6.48%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.1%Peak (2004)
  • 28Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 42049002500
Filings climbed 155% over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marvintown

Severe burden reaches 32%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.2/10. Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.

The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.7/10. Court records carry 174 eviction filings across 7 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2004, when 10.1% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 6.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #23,808 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Average gross rent is $866, close to the Erie average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049002500

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002500?

Census tract 42049002500 in the Marvintown neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049002500?

Median gross rent is $866/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002500?

21.0% of residents in tract 42049002500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,470.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002500?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 95th, minority 61th, housing 67th.
Q5

Is tract 42049002500 considered part of Marvintown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002500 fall within Marvintown (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002500?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 174 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.48% of renter households, peaking at 10.1% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049002500 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049002500 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049002500 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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