Neighborhood · Ranked #12,919 of 84,120 nationally

Elmwood Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bethlehem

Tract 42095010602 · Northampton County, PA · pop 2,892 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 42095010602 covers part of the Elmwood Park area of Bethlehem, PA, and scores 7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,892. 58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Northampton County average of 43.1%.

Risk score

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 16% Owners 62%

Tract context

Occupied units1,489

Renter share38.5%

SVI overall0.71

Poverty rate13.9%

Median income$65,304

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bethlehem and the region

Centroid at 40.6224, -75.3653 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elmwood Park scores 7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Bethlehem

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

Pennsylvania legislature & governorship

3.4

Economic stress

13.9% poverty · this tract

3.5

Supply constraint

$1,187 rent vs county FMR

2.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Bethlehem

7.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Bethlehem

9.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Bethlehem

7.1

How Elmwood Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 71

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

64%Socioeconomic
71%Household composition
51%Racial/ethnic minority
70%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
24%Grade B
19%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elmwood Park

Against the Northampton County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.1/10. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.9/10.

Average gross rent is $1,187, 14% below the Bethlehem average. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 85th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $65,304.

38% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 42095010602

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42095010602?

Census tract 42095010602 in the Elmwood Park neighborhood scores 7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 42095010602?

Median gross rent is $1,187/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 42095010602?

13.9% of residents in tract 42095010602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,892.

How socially vulnerable is tract 42095010602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 71th, minority 51th, housing 70th.

Is tract 42095010602 considered part of Elmwood Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42095010602 fall within Elmwood Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

How does tract 42095010602 compare to Bethlehem overall?

Tract 42095010602 scores 7/10, higher than the parent city of Bethlehem at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 42095010602 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bethlehem

Top eight tracts in Bethlehem ranked by composite eviction-risk score.