Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #16,850 of 84,120 nationally
South Side Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bethlehem
Tract 42095011200 · Northampton County, PA · pop 5,369 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
For landlords sizing up the South Side neighborhood of Bethlehem, census tract 42095011200 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.4/10. On the national scale it ranks #13,345 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
63% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,267 a month against an average household income of $46,165 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. Renters make up 70% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 30%
Tract context
Occupied units2,086
Renter share69.8%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate14.0%
Median income$46,165
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
90
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bethlehem and the region
Centroid at 40.6072, -75.3661 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Side scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bethlehem
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
14.0% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,267 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bethlehem
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bethlehem
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bethlehem
7.1
How South Side compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 96%Socioeconomic
- 99%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 82%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 5%Grade B
- 26%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 689Total filings over 7 yrs
- 9.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.8%Peak (2006)
- 146Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 39% over the past 7 months.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Side
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 9.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Northampton County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and Black and ranks around the 98th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 42095011200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42095011200?
Census tract 42095011200 in the South Side neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42095011200?
Median gross rent is $1,267/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42095011200?
14.0% of residents in tract 42095011200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,369.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42095011200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 99th, minority 83th, housing 82th.
Q5
Is tract 42095011200 considered part of South Side?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42095011200 fall within South Side (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42095011200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 689 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42095011200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.69% of renter households, peaking at 13.8% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42095011200 compare to Bethlehem overall?
Tract 42095011200 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bethlehem at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42095011200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bethlehem
Top eight tracts in Bethlehem ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Sayre Park
7.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Clearfield Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Historic South Bethlehem
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Historic Bethlehem
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Elliott Heights
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
West Bethlehem
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Central Bethlehem
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Historic South Bethlehem
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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