Cotton Row Historic District Eviction Risk: Lower , Memphis

76% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. The severe-burden share is 19%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.9/10. 41% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Shelby County average of 48.3%. It sits 1.3 points below the Shelby County average of 4.3.

At $1,355 a month, rents run 15% over what the rest of Memphis commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the TN average is 3.9, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.