Neighborhood · Ranked #10,727 of 84,120 nationally
Lyon Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington
Tract 51013101804 ·
Arlington County, VA · pop 2,895 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 7.4/10, tract 51013101804 in the Lyon Park area of Arlington, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,895. Severe burden reaches 34%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38%Stable renters 47%Owners 15%
Tract context
Occupied units1,452
Renter share85.2%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate24.4%
Median income$92,850
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100th percentile
#1 of 5 tracts In Lyon Park
Very High
Within parent city
99th percentile
#2 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Very High
Within county
97th percentile
#3 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Very High
Within state
99th percentile
#15 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8867, -77.0880 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lyon Park scores 7.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.4% poverty · this tract
6.1
Supply constraint
$2,079 rent vs county FMR
4.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Lyon Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 57
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
11.2%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
13.0%Food insecurity
10.0%SNAP enrollment
7.7%Transit barriers
10.2%No health insurance
16.5%Frequent mental distress
23.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lyon Park
This is renter territory: 85% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8.5/10. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10.
It sits 1.5 points above the Arlington County average of 5.9. The poverty rate is 24%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Cost burden runs 45% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7/10. At $2,079 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Arlington commands.
That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 6.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.2 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $92,850.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013101804
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101804?
Census tract 51013101804 in the Lyon Park neighborhood scores 7.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013101804?
Median gross rent is $2,079/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101804?
24.4% of residents in tract 51013101804 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,895.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101804?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 7th, minority 63th, housing 71th.
Q5
Is tract 51013101804 considered part of Lyon Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101804 fall within Lyon Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51013101804 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51013101804 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013101804 scores 7.4/10, higher than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.