Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally
Lyon Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington
Tract 51013101805 · Arlington County, VA · pop 4,043 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
51013101805 is a census tract in the Lyon Park area of Arlington, VA. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. 79% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 56%
Owners 20%
Tract context
Occupied units2,455
Renter share79.3%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate6.1%
Median income$166,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8890, -77.0858 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lyon Park scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.1% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,839 rent vs county FMR
7.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Lyon Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 2%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 82%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lyon Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.0%Housing insecurity
- 3.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.4%Food insecurity
- 2.6%SNAP enrollment
- 3.8%Transit barriers
- 4.3%No health insurance
- 13.9%Frequent mental distress
- 15.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lyon Park
What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8.5/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.5/10.
Disability prevalence runs 15.5% against 31.5% nationally. 30% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Arlington County average of 38.9%.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. The voucher gap is 22.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
At $2,839 a month, rents run 22% over what the rest of Arlington commands. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
On the national scale it lands near the 73rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013101805
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101805?
Census tract 51013101805 in the Lyon Park neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013101805?
Median gross rent is $2,839/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101805?
6.1% of residents in tract 51013101805 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,043.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101805?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 2th, minority 49th, housing 82th.
Q5
Is tract 51013101805 considered part of Lyon Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101805 fall within Lyon Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51013101805 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51013101805 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013101805 scores 5.6/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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