Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Fair Vernon Eviction Risk: Elevated , Springfield
Tract 51059431602 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,385 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
51059431602 is a census tract in the Fair Vernon area of Springfield, VA. It scores 6.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,385. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 56% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units1,974
Renter share32.6%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate10.3%
Median income$130,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7701, -77.1904 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fair Vernon scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.3% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,815 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.7
How Fair Vernon compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Fair Vernon. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 5.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.7%Food insecurity
- 8.1%SNAP enrollment
- 6.6%Transit barriers
- 8.8%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 24.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fair Vernon
Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 9/10.
Average gross rent is $1,815, 32% below the Springfield average. It sits 1.8 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
Running cool, economic stress reads 2.6/10. SNAP participation runs 8.1% against 15.2% nationally.
On the national scale it lands near the 79th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $130,750, annual rent is just 17%. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.9 points hotter. 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059431602
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431602?
Census tract 51059431602 in the Fair Vernon neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059431602?
Median gross rent is $1,815/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431602?
10.3% of residents in tract 51059431602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,385.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431602?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 56th, minority 75th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51059431602 considered part of Fair Vernon?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431602 fall within Fair Vernon (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059431602 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059431602 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 51059431602 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Springfield at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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