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Neighborhood · Springfield, VA

Fair Vernon Eviction Risk: Elevated

2 census tracts · pop 8,243 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.2/10 · range 6.1–6.5

Fair Vernon takes in 2 census tracts of Springfield, VA, population 8,243. Scored across those inputs it reaches 6.2/10, placing it in the Elevated tier. 60% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well above the Springfield rate of 41.4%.

34% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. What pushes the score up most is rent-regulation exposure at 9/10.

Running cool is economic stress, at 2.2/10. At $2,190 a month, rents sit 18% under what the rest of Springfield commands. 3.5% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

SNAP participation is 5.2% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Well under the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.9/10.

Among the 5 mapped neighborhoods of Springfield, it ranks #2 by risk, the middle third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Monticello Forest and Beverly Forest. The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.4 points apart at the extremes.

Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $120,570. 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

With little internal variation, 6.2/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
6.2
Elevated
2 tracts · population-weighted
Fair Vernon vs Springfield How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
59.5% +44%
Springfield: 41.4%
Average gross rent
$2,190 -18%
Springfield: $2,656
Average HH income
$120,570 -3%
Springfield: $123,691
Poverty rate
8.7% +12%
Springfield: 7.8%
Renter share
41.7% +23%
Springfield: 34.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Fair Vernon and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 6.1–6.5

Why Fair Vernon scores 6.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.4–7.4 across tracts
7.4
Rent control risk
60% of income on rent · Range 9.0–9.0 across tracts
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.9–2.9 across tracts
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
42% renter households · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts
6.7
Economic stress
8.7% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.6 across tracts
2.2
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.8–10.0 across tracts
4.4
Risk score comparison

Fair Vernon vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Fair Vernon score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Fair Vernon: 6.26.2Fair VernonNeighborhoodParent city: 5.95.9Parent cityhost cityState: 4.34.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Fair Vernon

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059431601 6.5 1,858 71% $3,477
51059431602 6.1 6,385 56% $1,815
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 62

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 56%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 54%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 58%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 67%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Fair Vernon

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Fair Vernon

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Fair Vernon?

Fair Vernon scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Fair Vernon compare to Springfield overall?

Fair Vernon scores 0.3 points higher than Springfield overall (5.9/10). Renters spend 60% of income on rent vs 41% citywide. Average rent: $2,190 vs $2,656.
Q3

What is the average rent in Fair Vernon?

Average gross rent in Fair Vernon is $2,190/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Fair Vernon residents are renters?

42% of Fair Vernon households are renter-occupied (vs 34% in Springfield). The neighborhood has 8,243 residents.
Q5

Is Fair Vernon a high social-vulnerability area?

Fair Vernon sits in the 62nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Fair Vernon have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Fair Vernon is census tract 51059431601 (score 6.5/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.1 to 6.5, a spread of 0.4 points.
Q7

How safe is Fair Vernon for landlords?

Fair Vernon carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.2/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Springfield as a whole (5.9/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Fair Vernon?

Fair Vernon has 8,290 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (42.6%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (29.9%), Hispanic / Latino (12.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Fair Vernon

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Springfield

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Fair Vernon.

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