Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #53,256 of 84,120 nationally
Holmes Run Acres Eviction Risk: Moderate , West Falls Church
Tract 51059450601 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,163 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51059450601 sits in the Holmes Run Acres neighborhood of West Falls Church, Virginia. It has a population of 4,163 and an eviction-risk score of 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). 16% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 8% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $2,828/month against a median household income of $189,537 — roughly 18% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,356
Renter share13.7%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate2.7%
Median income$189,537
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
29
th percentile
Low
Within county
24
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Falls Church and the region
Centroid at 38.8577, -77.2085 · click any tract to drill in
Why Holmes Run Acres scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from West Falls Church
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,828 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Falls Church
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Falls Church
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Falls Church
4.7
How Holmes Run Acres compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 28%Socioeconomic
- 63%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 22Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.89%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.3%Peak (2011)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.3%Housing insecurity
- 3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.1%SNAP enrollment
- 4.2%Transit barriers
- 6.7%No health insurance
- 11.1%Frequent mental distress
- 21.3%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51059450601
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059450601?
Census tract 51059450601 in the Holmes Run Acres neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059450601?
Median gross rent is $2,828/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 16% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059450601?
2.7% of residents in tract 51059450601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,163.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059450601?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 63th, minority 68th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 51059450601 considered part of Holmes Run Acres?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059450601 fall within Holmes Run Acres (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059450601?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 22 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059450601 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.89% of renter households, peaking at 7.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059450601 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059450601 compare to West Falls Church overall?
Tract 51059450601 scores 4.9/10 — right in line with the parent city of West Falls Church at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Falls Church eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Falls Church
Top eight tracts in West Falls Church ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related