Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Halley Rise Eviction Risk: Moderate , Reston
Tract 51059481202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,043 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
51059481202 is a census tract in the Halley Rise area of Reston, VA. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,043 residents. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 20% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units2,068
Renter share37.9%
SVI overall0.69
Poverty rate5.0%
Median income$108,689
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
78
th percentile
High
Within county
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Reston and the region
Centroid at 38.9456, -77.3710 · click any tract to drill in
Why Halley Rise scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Reston
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.0% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,894 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Reston
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Reston
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Reston
3.8
How Halley Rise compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 73%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 37%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 248Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.0%Peak (2011)
- 56Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 20% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Halley Rise. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.6%Housing insecurity
- 8.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.6%Food insecurity
- 12.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.7%Transit barriers
- 12.8%No health insurance
- 14.8%Frequent mental distress
- 27.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Halley Rise
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.3/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 248 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Average gross rent is $1,894, 15% below the Reston average. Filings peaked in 2011 at 9.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 7.9% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 53rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 7.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $108,689.
38% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059481202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059481202?
Census tract 51059481202 in the Halley Rise neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059481202?
Median gross rent is $1,894/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 20% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059481202?
5.0% of residents in tract 51059481202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,043.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059481202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 73th, minority 79th, housing 37th.
Q5
Is tract 51059481202 considered part of Halley Rise?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059481202 fall within Halley Rise (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059481202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 248 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059481202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.88% of renter households, peaking at 9.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059481202 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059481202 compare to Reston overall?
Tract 51059481202 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Reston at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Reston eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Reston
Top eight tracts in Reston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Deepwood
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lake Anne Village
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Lake Anne Village
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Colvin's Glen
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Harvest Green Cluster
3.9
/ 10 · Low
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