Neighborhood · Ranked #75,086 of 84,120 nationally

Barrington Valley Eviction Risk: Lower , Short Pump

Tract 51087200144 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,341 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51087200144 belongs to Barrington Valley in Short Pump, Virginia. It is home to 3,341 residents and scores 6.1/10, an elevated reading for landlords. It lands near the 77th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 51% of renter households, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,710 monthly, set against $104,239 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 77% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

1.9

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 40% Stable renters 38% Owners 22%

Tract context

Occupied units1,632

Renter share77.3%

SVI overall0.15

Poverty rate6.0%

Median income$104,239

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Short Pump and the region

Centroid at 37.6485, -77.6034 · click any tract to drill in

Why Barrington Valley scores 1.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Short Pump

4.3

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

6.0% poverty · this tract

1.5

Supply constraint

$1,710 rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Short Pump

4.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Short Pump

8.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Short Pump

3.7

How Barrington Valley compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 15

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

9%Socioeconomic
15%Household composition
70%Racial/ethnic minority
27%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Barrington Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.2%Housing insecurity
5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
8.9%Food insecurity
6.0%SNAP enrollment
5.5%Transit barriers
5.7%No health insurance
14.3%Frequent mental distress
21.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Barrington Valley

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Short Pump eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 15th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200144

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200144?

Census tract 51087200144 in the Barrington Valley neighborhood scores 1.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200144?

Median gross rent is $1,710/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200144?

6.0% of residents in tract 51087200144 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,341.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200144?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 15th, minority 70th, housing 27th.

Is tract 51087200144 considered part of Barrington Valley?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200144 fall within Barrington Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51087200144 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200144 compare to Short Pump overall?

Tract 51087200144 scores 1.9/10, lower than the parent city of Short Pump at 3.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Short Pump eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Short Pump

Top eight tracts in Short Pump ranked by composite eviction-risk score.