Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Timberline Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Short Pump
Tract 51087200139 ·
Henrico County, VA · pop 4,059 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Census tract 51087200139 covers part of the Timberline Village area of Short Pump, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,059 residents. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.7/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%Stable renters 21%Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,801
Renter share35.6%
SVI overall0.33
Poverty rate4.7%
Median income$98,264
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Timberline Village
Moderate
Within parent city
0th percentile
#9 of 9 tracts In Short Pump
Very Low
Within county
5th percentile
#81 of 85 tracts In Henrico County
Very Low
Within state
18th percentile
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Short Pump and the region
Centroid at 37.6346, -77.6444 · click any tract to drill in
Why Timberline Village scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Short Pump
4.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.7% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,662 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Short Pump
4.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Short Pump
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Short Pump
3.7
How Timberline Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 33
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
29%Socioeconomic
36%Household composition
45%Racial/ethnic minority
41%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
6.5%Housing insecurity
4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
6.5%Food insecurity
4.7%SNAP enrollment
4.4%Transit barriers
4.9%No health insurance
13.8%Frequent mental distress
24.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Timberline Village
Running cool, economic stress reads 1.2/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10. 40% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Henrico County average of 47.8%.
It sits 1.3 points below the Henrico County average of 4.3. Food insecurity runs 6.5% against 17.8% nationally.
Severe burden reaches 10%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. At $1,662 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Short Pump commands.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200139
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200139?
Census tract 51087200139 in the Timberline Village neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200139?
Median gross rent is $1,662/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200139?
4.7% of residents in tract 51087200139 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,059.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200139?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 36th, minority 45th, housing 41th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200139 considered part of Timberline Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200139 fall within Timberline Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087200139 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087200139 compare to Short Pump overall?
Tract 51087200139 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Short Pump at 3.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Short Pump eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Short Pump
Top eight tracts in Short Pump ranked by composite eviction-risk score.