Forest Ridge Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901235 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,004 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 51153901235, home to 3,004 residents in the Forest Ridge neighborhood of Lake Ridge, scores 4.7/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 27% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 0% of renter households, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,694 monthly, set against $174,091 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. About 5% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6980, -77.3364 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forest Ridge scores 1.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Forest Ridge compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 0
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 16%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 7Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.93%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.9%Peak (2016)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.3%Food insecurity
- 4.8%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 5.2%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 21.9%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Forest Ridge
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 6.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 0th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.9% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51153901235
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901235?
What is the average rent in tract 51153901235?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901235?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901235?
Is tract 51153901235 considered part of Forest Ridge?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901235?
What share of households in tract 51153901235 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153901235 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.