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Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally

Forest Ridge Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901235 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,004 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51153901235 is a census tract in the Forest Ridge area of Lake Ridge, VA. It scores 3.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,004. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 5% Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units972
Renter share5.0%
SVI overall0.00
Poverty rate0.5%
Median income$174,091

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Forest Ridge
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#11 of 11 tracts In Lake Ridge
Very Low
Within county
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#70 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Low
Within state
23 th percentile
Rank, 23rd percentileLowHigh
#1,682 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6980, -77.3364 · click any tract to drill in

Why Forest Ridge scores 3.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,694 rent vs county FMR
6.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2

How Forest Ridge compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Forest Ridge risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.2This tracttract 9012354.0Lake Ridgeparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 0

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 7Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 6.93%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.9%Peak (2016)
  • 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Forest Ridge

On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $2,694, 33% above the Lake Ridge average. Food insecurity runs 7.3% against 17.8% nationally.

SNAP participation runs 4.8% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.

The voucher gap is 16.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The filing record is not thin: 7 evictions over 1 years of observation. It sits 0.9 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 6.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.9% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #63,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 5% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901235

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901235?

Census tract 51153901235 in the Forest Ridge neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901235?

Median gross rent is $2,694/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901235?

0.5% of residents in tract 51153901235 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,004.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901235?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 0th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 16th, minority 51th, housing 1th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901235 considered part of Forest Ridge?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901235 fall within Forest Ridge (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901235?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901235 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.93% of renter households, peaking at 6.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901235 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901235 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901235 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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