Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally
Lakepointe Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901236 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,419 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 3.2/10, tract 51153901236 in the Lakepointe area of Lake Ridge, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,419. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units2,097
Renter share18.1%
SVI overall0.10
Poverty rate2.6%
Median income$167,917
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
26
th percentile
Low
Within state
23
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6851, -77.3412 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lakepointe scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,273 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2
How Lakepointe compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 10
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 9%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 8%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 26Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.76%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.8%Peak (2016)
- 26Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 6.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 6.1%No health insurance
- 13.8%Frequent mental distress
- 22.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lakepointe
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. SNAP participation runs 6.3% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 9.0% against 17.8% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 26 filings here across 1 tracked years.
Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. At $2,273 a month, rents run 12% over what the rest of Lake Ridge commands. Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.8% of renter households.
In a typical year about 4.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 25% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 18% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.9/10. Against average income of $167,917, annual rent is just 16%. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points cooler.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901236
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901236?
Census tract 51153901236 in the Lakepointe neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901236?
Median gross rent is $2,273/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901236?
2.6% of residents in tract 51153901236 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,419.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901236?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 28th, minority 65th, housing 8th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901236 considered part of Lakepointe?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901236 fall within Lakepointe (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901236?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901236 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.76% of renter households, peaking at 4.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901236 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901236 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Tract 51153901236 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
The Heights
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Holly Ridge
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Windsor Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51153901222
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Highland Chase
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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