Neighborhood · Ranked #40,134 of 84,120 nationally

Lakepointe Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901236 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,419 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 51153901236 covers Lakepointe in Lake Ridge in Virginia. Home to 6,419 residents, it scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 63% of US census tracts.

41% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,273 a month while the average household earns $167,917 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 18% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 11% Owners 82%

Tract context

Occupied units2,097

Renter share18.1%

SVI overall0.10

Poverty rate2.6%

Median income$167,917

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6851, -77.3412 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lakepointe scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

2.6% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,273 rent vs county FMR

4.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How Lakepointe compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 10

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

9%Socioeconomic
28%Household composition
65%Racial/ethnic minority
8%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

26Total filings over 1 yrs
4.76%Avg annual filing rate
4.8%Peak (2016)
26Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.9%Housing insecurity
5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
9.0%Food insecurity
6.3%SNAP enrollment
5.5%Transit barriers
6.1%No health insurance
13.8%Frequent mental distress
22.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lakepointe

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 5.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 26 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 4.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 4.8% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 10th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901236

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901236?

Census tract 51153901236 in the Lakepointe neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901236?

Median gross rent is $2,273/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901236?

2.6% of residents in tract 51153901236 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,419.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901236?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 28th, minority 65th, housing 8th.

Is tract 51153901236 considered part of Lakepointe?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901236 fall within Lakepointe (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901236?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901236 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.76% of renter households, peaking at 4.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901236 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901236 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901236 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.