Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #76,223 of 84,120 nationally

Mill Pond Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Chesapeake

Tract 51550020804 · Chesapeake city, VA · pop 11,816 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Census tract 51550020804 belongs to Mill Pond Forest in Chesapeake, Virginia. It is home to 11,816 residents and scores 4.7/10, a moderate reading for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

55% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $3,162 a month while the average household earns $108,917 a year, roughly 35% of income at the averages. Renters make up 11% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.8
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 5% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units4,215
Renter share11.3%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate6.3%
Median income$108,917

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Mill Pond Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
42 th percentile
Rank, 42nd percentileLowHigh
#36 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake
Moderate
Within county
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#37 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake city
Moderate
Within state
29 th percentile
Rank, 29th percentileLowHigh
#1,544 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chesapeake and the region

Centroid at 36.7417, -76.1812 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mill Pond Forest scores 1.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.3% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$3,162 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chesapeake
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5

How Mill Pond Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mill Pond Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.81.8This tracttract 020804Chesapeake: 3.63.6Chesapeakeparent cityCounty: 2.32.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 208Total filings over 6 yrs
  • 5.60%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.4%Peak (2014)
  • 40Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 515500208042011: 26 filings (4.04/100 renter HHs)2012: 36 filings (5.59/100 renter HHs)2013: 39 filings (6.06/100 renter HHs)2014: 41 filings (6.37/100 renter HHs)2015: 26 filings (4.04/100 renter HHs)2016: 40 filings (7.49/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 54% over the past 6 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mill Pond Forest

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesapeake City County average of 4.3 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 18th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51550020804

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51550020804?

Census tract 51550020804 in the Mill Pond Forest neighborhood scores 1.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51550020804?

Median gross rent is $3,162/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51550020804?

6.3% of residents in tract 51550020804 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 11,816.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51550020804?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 44th, minority 63th, housing 25th.
Q5

Is tract 51550020804 considered part of Mill Pond Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51550020804 fall within Mill Pond Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51550020804?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 208 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 51550020804 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.60% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51550020804 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51550020804 compare to Chesapeake overall?

Tract 51550020804 scores 1.8/10, lower than the parent city of Chesapeake at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chesapeake

Top eight tracts in Chesapeake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related