Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally

Mains Creek Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chesapeake

Tract 51550020910 · Chesapeake city, VA · pop 1,616 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

51550020910 is a census tract in the Mains Creek Park area of Chesapeake, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,616 residents. 77% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Chesapeake City average of 49.2%.

Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46% Stable renters 14% Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units574
Renter share59.6%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate19.6%
Median income$46,563

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Mains Creek Park
Moderate
Within parent city
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake
Very High
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake city
Very High
Within state
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#589 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chesapeake and the region

Centroid at 36.7508, -76.2849 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mains Creek Park scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
19.6% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$1,071 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chesapeake
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5

How Mains Creek Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mains Creek Park risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.8This tracttract 0209103.4Chesapeakeparent city3.6Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 42

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mains Creek Park

Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.3/10. At $1,071 a month, rents run 32% under what the rest of Chesapeake commands.

Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. It sits 1.2 points above the Chesapeake City average of 3.6. The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

SNAP participation runs 23.9% against 15.2% nationally. Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #35,669 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $46,563. 60% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51550020910

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51550020910?

Census tract 51550020910 in the Mains Creek Park neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51550020910?

Median gross rent is $1,071/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51550020910?

19.6% of residents in tract 51550020910 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,616.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51550020910?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 50th, minority 90th, housing 5th.
Q5

Is tract 51550020910 considered part of Mains Creek Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51550020910 fall within Mains Creek Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51550020910 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51550020910 compare to Chesapeake overall?

Tract 51550020910 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Chesapeake at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chesapeake

Top eight tracts in Chesapeake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related