Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Mains Creek Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chesapeake
Tract 51550020910 ·
Chesapeake city, VA · pop 1,616 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
51550020910 is a census tract in the Mains Creek Park area of Chesapeake, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,616 residents. 77% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Chesapeake City average of 49.2%.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%Stable renters 14%Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units574
Renter share59.6%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate19.6%
Median income$46,563
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Mains Creek Park
Moderate
Within parent city
97th percentile
#3 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake
Very High
Within county
95th percentile
#4 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake city
Very High
Within state
73th percentile
#589 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chesapeake and the region
Centroid at 36.7508, -76.2849 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mains Creek Park scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
19.6% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$1,071 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chesapeake
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
How Mains Creek Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 42
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
67%Socioeconomic
50%Household composition
90%Racial/ethnic minority
5%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
20.9%Housing insecurity
15.5%Utility-shutoff threat
24.8%Food insecurity
23.9%SNAP enrollment
13.3%Transit barriers
9.2%No health insurance
19.2%Frequent mental distress
32.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mains Creek Park
Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.3/10. At $1,071 a month, rents run 32% under what the rest of Chesapeake commands.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. It sits 1.2 points above the Chesapeake City average of 3.6. The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #35,669 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $46,563. 60% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51550020910
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51550020910?
Census tract 51550020910 in the Mains Creek Park neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51550020910?
Median gross rent is $1,071/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51550020910?
19.6% of residents in tract 51550020910 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,616.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51550020910?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 50th, minority 90th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 51550020910 considered part of Mains Creek Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51550020910 fall within Mains Creek Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51550020910 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51550020910 compare to Chesapeake overall?
Tract 51550020910 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Chesapeake at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chesapeake
Top eight tracts in Chesapeake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.