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Neighborhood · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally

Bay View Beach Eviction Risk: Moderate , Norfolk

Tract 51710000201 · Norfolk city, VA · pop 2,558 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 51710000201 covers the Bay View Beach neighborhood of Norfolk in Virginia. Home to 2,558 residents, it scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 52% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,069 monthly, set against $49,773 in average yearly household income, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 70% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 33% Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units1,400
Renter share69.6%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate16.0%
Median income$49,773

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Bay View Beach
Very High
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 80 tracts In Norfolk
Elevated
Within county
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#26 of 80 tracts In Norfolk city
Elevated
Within state
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#263 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Norfolk and the region

Centroid at 36.9440, -76.2375 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bay View Beach scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Norfolk
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.0% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,069 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Norfolk
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0

How Bay View Beach compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bay View Beach risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.94.9This tracttract 000201Norfolk: 4.54.5Norfolkparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 769Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 43.53%Avg annual filing rate
  • 57.1%Peak (2011)
  • 276Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bay View Beach. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bay View Beach

The score leans hardest on housing court bias at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Norfolk City County average of 5.1 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 75th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51710000201

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51710000201?

Census tract 51710000201 in the Bay View Beach neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51710000201?

Median gross rent is $1,069/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51710000201?

16.0% of residents in tract 51710000201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,558.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51710000201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 71th, minority 55th, housing 56th.
Q5

Is tract 51710000201 considered part of Bay View Beach?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51710000201 fall within Bay View Beach (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51710000201?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 769 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51710000201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 43.53% of renter households, peaking at 57.1% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51710000201 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51710000201 compare to Norfolk overall?

Tract 51710000201 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Norfolk at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 51710000201 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Norfolk

Top eight tracts in Norfolk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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