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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally

Bay View Beach Eviction Risk: Moderate , Norfolk

Tract 51710000202 · Norfolk city, VA · pop 4,314 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 51710000202, home to 4,314 residents in Bay View Beach in Norfolk, scores $1/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 37% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 61% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 20% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,124 a month against an average household income of $70,691 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. About 39% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 15% Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,829
Renter share38.6%
SVI overall0.51
Poverty rate10.1%
Median income$70,691

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Bay View Beach
Very Low
Within parent city
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#56 of 80 tracts In Norfolk
Low
Within county
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#56 of 80 tracts In Norfolk city
Low
Within state
76 th percentile
Rank, 76th percentileLowHigh
#534 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Norfolk and the region

Centroid at 36.9374, -76.2390 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bay View Beach scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Norfolk
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.1% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,124 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Norfolk
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0

How Bay View Beach compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bay View Beach risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.14.1This tracttract 000202Norfolk: 4.54.5Norfolkparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 51

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 537Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 38.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 36.9%Peak (2011)
  • 241Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bay View Beach. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bay View Beach

The heaviest input here is housing court bias at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Norfolk City County average of 5.1 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 14.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 51st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51710000202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51710000202?

Census tract 51710000202 in the Bay View Beach neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51710000202?

Median gross rent is $1,124/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51710000202?

10.1% of residents in tract 51710000202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,314.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51710000202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 51th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 78th, minority 65th, housing 15th.
Q5

Is tract 51710000202 considered part of Bay View Beach?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51710000202 fall within Bay View Beach (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51710000202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 537 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51710000202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 38.74% of renter households, peaking at 36.9% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51710000202 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51710000202 compare to Norfolk overall?

Tract 51710000202 scores 4.1/10, lower than the parent city of Norfolk at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 51710000202 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Norfolk

Top eight tracts in Norfolk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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