Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
The Fan Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond
Tract 51760040400 · Richmond city, VA · pop 3,947 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51760040400 covers part of the The Fan area of Richmond, VA, and scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. 41% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 39%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units1,878
Renter share64.0%
SVI overall0.51
Poverty rate25.6%
Median income$36,586
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
82
th percentile
High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5511, -77.4577 · click any tract to drill in
Why The Fan scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
25.6% poverty · this tract
6.4
Supply constraint
$1,315 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How The Fan compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 51
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 45%Racial/ethnic minority
- 77%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 86%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 159Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.37%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.7%Peak (2016)
- 42Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within The Fan. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.0%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.7%Food insecurity
- 9.3%SNAP enrollment
- 8.5%Transit barriers
- 6.6%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 29.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in The Fan
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.8/10. Annualized rent equals 43% of average household income of $36,586, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 61% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Richmond City average of 50.2%.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.4/10. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 1.4 points above the Richmond City average of 4.3.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 159 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 3.7% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Richmond. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 3.4% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760040400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760040400?
Census tract 51760040400 in the The Fan neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760040400?
Median gross rent is $1,315/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760040400?
25.6% of residents in tract 51760040400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,947.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760040400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 51th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 4th, minority 45th, housing 77th.
Q5
Is tract 51760040400 considered part of The Fan?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760040400 fall within The Fan (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760040400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 159 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760040400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.37% of renter households, peaking at 3.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51760040400 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51760040400 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760040400 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51760040400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Montrose Heights
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Oak Grove
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Fulton Bottom
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Pinehurts
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Oregon Hill
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Gilpin Court
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Barton Heights
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Monroe Ward
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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