Neighborhood · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally

Colonial Trail Eviction Risk: Moderate , Roanoke

Tract 51770000601 · Roanoke city, VA · pop 5,216 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

For landlords sizing up the Colonial Trail area of Roanoke, census tract 51770000601 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.6/10. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 34% of renter households, a high level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,040 a month while the average household earns $58,318 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 31% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 20% Owners 70%

Tract context

Occupied units2,385

Renter share30.7%

SVI overall0.44

Poverty rate19.3%

Median income$58,318

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Roanoke and the region

Centroid at 37.3105, -79.9030 · click any tract to drill in

Why Colonial Trail scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Roanoke

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.3

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

19.3% poverty · this tract

4.8

Supply constraint

$1,040 rent vs county FMR

4.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Roanoke

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Roanoke

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Roanoke

4.5

How Colonial Trail compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 44

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

53%Socioeconomic
63%Household composition
43%Racial/ethnic minority
24%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
24%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.1%Housing insecurity
9.8%Utility-shutoff threat
17.6%Food insecurity
16.4%SNAP enrollment
9.6%Transit barriers
10.6%No health insurance
19.2%Frequent mental distress
33.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Colonial Trail

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 4.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Roanoke City County average of 5.8 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 24% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 44th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51770000601

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51770000601?

Census tract 51770000601 in the Colonial Trail neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51770000601?

Median gross rent is $1,040/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51770000601?

19.3% of residents in tract 51770000601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,216.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51770000601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 53th, household 63th, minority 43th, housing 24th.

Is tract 51770000601 considered part of Colonial Trail?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51770000601 fall within Colonial Trail (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51770000601 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51770000601 compare to Roanoke overall?

Tract 51770000601 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Roanoke at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51770000601 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 24% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Roanoke

Top eight tracts in Roanoke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.