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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Chestnut Hills Eviction Risk: Lower , Roanoke

Tract 51770002900 · Roanoke city, VA · pop 4,951 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 3/10, tract 51770002900 in the Chestnut Hills area of Roanoke, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,951 residents. 22% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far below the Roanoke City average of 42.8%.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 21% Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units2,090
Renter share27.0%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate9.0%
Median income$113,979

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Chestnut Hills
Moderate
Within parent city
13 th percentile
Rank, 13th percentileLowHigh
#22 of 25 tracts In Roanoke
Very Low
Within county
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#21 of 25 tracts In Roanoke city
Very Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Roanoke and the region

Centroid at 37.2326, -79.9572 · click any tract to drill in

Why Chestnut Hills scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Roanoke
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.0% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,062 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Roanoke
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Roanoke
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Roanoke
4.5

How Chestnut Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Chestnut Hills risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 0029004.0Roanokeparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 31

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: A: Best

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Chestnut Hills

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.5/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.2/10. Against the Roanoke City average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points.

SNAP participation runs 4.8% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

This ground was mapped A ("Best") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Roanoke. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 3.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $113,979, annual rent is just 11%. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51770002900

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51770002900?

Census tract 51770002900 in the Chestnut Hills neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51770002900?

Median gross rent is $1,062/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 22% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51770002900?

9.0% of residents in tract 51770002900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,951.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51770002900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 20th, minority 29th, housing 73th.
Q5

Is tract 51770002900 considered part of Chestnut Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51770002900 fall within Chestnut Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51770002900 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51770002900 compare to Roanoke overall?

Tract 51770002900 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Roanoke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 51770002900 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Roanoke

Top eight tracts in Roanoke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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