Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
College Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Winchester
Tract 51840000301 · Winchester city, VA · pop 5,388 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
With a score of 5.5/10, tract 51840000301 in the College Park area of Winchester, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,388 residents. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.6/10.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,782
Renter share67.5%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate12.4%
Median income$63,382
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
20
th percentile
Low
Within county
20
th percentile
Low
Within state
89
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Winchester and the region
Centroid at 39.1733, -78.1635 · click any tract to drill in
Why College Park scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Winchester
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.4% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,424 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winchester
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winchester
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winchester
7.2
How College Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 89
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 94%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 57%Racial/ethnic minority
- 65%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.1%Housing insecurity
- 10.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.1%Food insecurity
- 19.2%SNAP enrollment
- 12.3%Transit barriers
- 14.4%No health insurance
- 21.9%Frequent mental distress
- 38.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in College Park
Severe burden reaches 31%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10. This is renter territory: 68% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Against Winchester City at 46.5%, 54% of renters here are cost-burdened. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. At $1,424 a month, rents run 8% over what the rest of Winchester commands.
That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Winchester City average of 5.9 closely. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $63,382.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51840000301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51840000301?
Census tract 51840000301 in the College Park neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51840000301?
Median gross rent is $1,424/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51840000301?
12.4% of residents in tract 51840000301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,388.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51840000301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 89th, minority 57th, housing 65th.
Q5
Is tract 51840000301 considered part of College Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51840000301 fall within College Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51840000301 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51840000301 compare to Winchester overall?
Tract 51840000301 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Winchester at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winchester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Winchester
Top eight tracts in Winchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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