Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally

Castle Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate , San Marcos

Tract 48209010703 · Hays, TX · pop 5,547 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 48209010703 covers the Castle Forest neighborhood of San Marcos, home to 5,547 residents. For landlords it grades 6.4/10, an elevated reading. It lands near the 84th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

63% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 46% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,166 a month while the average household earns $48,214 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. Renters make up 77% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 49% Stable renters 28% Owners 23%

Tract context

Occupied units2,606

Renter share77.0%

SVI overall0.40

Poverty rate34.0%

Median income$48,214

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Marcos and the region

Centroid at 29.9002, -97.9466 · click any tract to drill in

Why Castle Forest scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Marcos

6.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.5

State political climate

Texas legislature & governorship

1.5

Economic stress

34.0% poverty · this tract

8.5

Supply constraint

$1,166 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Marcos

8.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.9

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Marcos

9.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Marcos

8.9

How Castle Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 40

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

57%Socioeconomic
1%Household composition
61%Racial/ethnic minority
85%Housing & transportation

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Castle Forest

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from San Marcos eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hays County average of 5.2 and above the Texas statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 40th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 48209010703

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48209010703?

Census tract 48209010703 in the Castle Forest neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 48209010703?

Median gross rent is $1,166/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 48209010703?

34.0% of residents in tract 48209010703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,547.

How socially vulnerable is tract 48209010703?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 1th, minority 61th, housing 85th.

Is tract 48209010703 considered part of Castle Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 48209010703 fall within Castle Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

How does tract 48209010703 compare to San Marcos overall?

Tract 48209010703 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of San Marcos at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Marcos eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Marcos

Top eight tracts in San Marcos ranked by composite eviction-risk score.