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Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Castle Forest Eviction Risk: Elevated , San Marcos

Tract 48209010703 · Hays, TX · pop 5,547 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

48209010703 is a census tract in the Castle Forest area of San Marcos, TX. It scores 7.3/10 for landlords. Severe burden reaches 46%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 49% Stable renters 28% Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units2,606
Renter share77.0%
SVI overall0.40
Poverty rate34.0%
Median income$48,214

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Castle Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
27 th percentile
Rank, 27th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 16 tracts In San Marcos
Low
Within county
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 46 tracts In Hays
Very High
Within state
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 6,884 tracts In Texas
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Marcos and the region

Centroid at 29.9002, -97.9466 · click any tract to drill in

Why Castle Forest scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Marcos
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
34.0% poverty · this tract
8.5
Supply constraint
$1,166 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Marcos
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Marcos
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Marcos
8.9

How Castle Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Castle Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.3This tracttract 0107035.9San Marcosparent city4.7Countyavg tract in county3.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 40

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Castle Forest

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. It sits 2.6 points above the Hays County average of 4.7. Cost burden runs 63% here against 50.2% across Hays County.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. The poverty rate is 34%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

This is renter territory: 77% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.9/10. At $1,166 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of San Marcos commands.

On the national scale it lands near the 87th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.6/10. Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 3.4 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $48,214.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 48209010703

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48209010703?

Census tract 48209010703 in the Castle Forest neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 48209010703?

Median gross rent is $1,166/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 48209010703?

34.0% of residents in tract 48209010703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,547.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 48209010703?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 1th, minority 61th, housing 85th.
Q5

Is tract 48209010703 considered part of Castle Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 48209010703 fall within Castle Forest (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How does tract 48209010703 compare to San Marcos overall?

Tract 48209010703 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of San Marcos at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Marcos eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Marcos

Top eight tracts in San Marcos ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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