Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Fairlawn Eviction Risk: Elevated , San Marcos
Tract 48209010309 · Hays, TX · pop 4,331 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
With a score of 7.3/10, tract 48209010309 in the Fairlawn area of San Marcos, TX reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,331. Severe burden reaches 41%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38%
Stable renters 52%
Owners 10%
Tract context
Occupied units1,958
Renter share90.7%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate30.9%
Median income$43,564
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
100
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across San Marcos and the region
Centroid at 29.9212, -97.8999 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairlawn scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from San Marcos
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
30.9% poverty · this tract
7.7
Supply constraint
$1,156 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Marcos
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Marcos
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Marcos
8.9
How Fairlawn compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 85%Socioeconomic
- 20%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Fairlawn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairlawn
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. It sits 2.6 points above the Hays County average of 4.7. This is renter territory: 91% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.9/10.
The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Adults with no health insurance runs 24.3% against 11.3% nationally. Cost burden runs 42% here against 50.2% across Hays County.
Average gross rent is $1,156, 13% below the San Marcos average. Nationally it ranks #11,153 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.3/10. Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 3.4 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 48209010309
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48209010309?
Census tract 48209010309 in the Fairlawn neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 48209010309?
Median gross rent is $1,156/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 48209010309?
30.9% of residents in tract 48209010309 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,331.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 48209010309?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 20th, minority 76th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 48209010309 considered part of Fairlawn?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 48209010309 fall within Fairlawn (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 48209010309 compare to San Marcos overall?
Tract 48209010309 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of San Marcos at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Marcos eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in San Marcos
Top eight tracts in San Marcos ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · TX
Castle Forest
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · TX
48209010704
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · TX
East Guadalupe
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · TX
East Guadalupe
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · TX
48209010302
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · TX
Fairlawn
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · TX
48209010306
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · TX
Millview West
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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