Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Barcroft Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington
Tract 51013102302 · Arlington County, VA · pop 4,709 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 51013102302 sits in the Barcroft area of Arlington eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.3/10. Population here is 4,709. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units1,926
Renter share52.6%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate2.3%
Median income$136,548
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
16
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
16
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8616, -77.1030 · click any tract to drill in
Why Barcroft scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,004 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Barcroft compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 53%Socioeconomic
- 34%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 69%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 59Total filings over 1 yrs
- 9.38%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.4%Peak (2016)
- 59Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Barcroft. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.8%Food insecurity
- 7.4%SNAP enrollment
- 6.4%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 14.5%Frequent mental distress
- 22.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Barcroft
Against Arlington County at 38.9%, roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 59 filings here across 1 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 7.4% against 15.2% nationally.
Average gross rent is $2,004, 14% below the Arlington average. Food insecurity runs 10.8% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Arlington County average of 5.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 9.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 9.4% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 67th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.3/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013102302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102302?
Census tract 51013102302 in the Barcroft neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013102302?
Median gross rent is $2,004/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102302?
2.3% of residents in tract 51013102302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,709.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 53th, household 34th, minority 68th, housing 69th.
Q5
Is tract 51013102302 considered part of Barcroft?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102302 fall within Barcroft (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102302?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 59 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.38% of renter households, peaking at 9.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51013102302 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51013102302 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013102302 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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