Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

Lyon Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013101805 · Arlington County, VA · pop 4,043 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

51013101805 is a census tract in the Lyon Park area of Arlington, VA. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. 79% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Risk score

5.6

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 56% Owners 20%

Tract context

Occupied units2,455

Renter share79.3%

SVI overall0.12

Poverty rate6.1%

Median income$166,458

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8890, -77.0858 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lyon Park scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Arlington

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.2

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

6.1% poverty · this tract

1.5

Supply constraint

$2,839 rent vs county FMR

7.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Arlington

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Arlington

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Arlington

6.0

How Lyon Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 12

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

1%Socioeconomic
2%Household composition
49%Racial/ethnic minority
82%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lyon Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

5.0%Housing insecurity
3.1%Utility-shutoff threat
4.4%Food insecurity
2.6%SNAP enrollment
3.8%Transit barriers
4.3%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
15.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lyon Park

What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8.5/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.5/10.

Disability prevalence runs 15.5% against 31.5% nationally. 30% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Arlington County average of 38.9%.

Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. The voucher gap is 22.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

At $2,839 a month, rents run 22% over what the rest of Arlington commands. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

On the national scale it lands near the 73rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2/10.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013101805

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101805?

Census tract 51013101805 in the Lyon Park neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51013101805?

Median gross rent is $2,839/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101805?

6.1% of residents in tract 51013101805 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,043.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101805?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 2th, minority 49th, housing 82th.

Is tract 51013101805 considered part of Lyon Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101805 fall within Lyon Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51013101805 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51013101805 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013101805 scores 5.6/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.