Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

North Fairlington Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013102903 · Arlington County, VA · pop 1,571 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51013102903 is a census tract in the North Fairlington area of Arlington, VA. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,571 residents. Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 21% Owners 71%

Tract context

Occupied units828

Renter share28.5%

SVI overall0.00

Poverty rate2.9%

Median income$146,615

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8415, -77.0956 · click any tract to drill in

Why North Fairlington scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Arlington

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.2

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

2.9% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,360 rent vs county FMR

5.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Arlington

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Arlington

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Arlington

6.0

How North Fairlington compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 0

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

0%Socioeconomic
1%Household composition
42%Racial/ethnic minority
7%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within North Fairlington. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.3%Housing insecurity
4.0%Utility-shutoff threat
5.6%Food insecurity
3.9%SNAP enrollment
4.1%Transit barriers
4.9%No health insurance
14.2%Frequent mental distress
18.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in North Fairlington

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Cost burden runs 28% here against 38.9% across Arlington County. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Food insecurity runs 5.6% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 6.3% against 14.2% nationally.

That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1/10.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Arlington County average of 5.9 closely. Average gross rent is $2,360, close to the Arlington average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013102903

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102903?

Census tract 51013102903 in the North Fairlington neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51013102903?

Median gross rent is $2,360/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102903?

2.9% of residents in tract 51013102903 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,571.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102903?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 0th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 1th, minority 42th, housing 7th.

Is tract 51013102903 considered part of North Fairlington?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102903 fall within North Fairlington (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51013102903 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51013102903 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013102903 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.