Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
London Towne Eviction Risk: Moderate , Centreville
Tract 51059491103 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,181 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 4.9/10, tract 51059491103 in the London Towne area of Centreville, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,181. The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty at 2.7/10.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units2,022
Renter share18.5%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate11.2%
Median income$114,167
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
85
th percentile
High
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Centreville and the region
Centroid at 38.8396, -77.4614 · click any tract to drill in
Why London Towne scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.2% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$2,637 rent vs county FMR
6.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2
How London Towne compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 23
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 36%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 80Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.9%Peak (2011)
- 16Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 48% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within London Towne. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.5%Food insecurity
- 9.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 10.6%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 25.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in London Towne
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.8/10. Court records carry 80 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Average gross rent is $2,637, 15% above the Centreville average.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10. 37% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
The voucher gap is 14.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points.
The worst year on record was 2011, when 7.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.9% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #34,278 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491103?
Census tract 51059491103 in the London Towne neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491103?
Median gross rent is $2,637/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491103?
11.2% of residents in tract 51059491103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,181.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 36th, minority 67th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491103 considered part of London Towne?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491103 fall within London Towne (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491103?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 80 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491103 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.88% of renter households, peaking at 7.9% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491103 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059491103 compare to Centreville overall?
Tract 51059491103 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Centreville
Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Uniontown
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51059490101
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
London Towne
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
3.9
/ 10 · Low
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