Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Willow Springs Eviction Risk: Lower , Centreville
Tract 51059490501 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,344 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51059490501 sits in the Willow Springs area of Centreville eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.9/10. It is home to 3,344 residents. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,273
Renter share50.3%
SVI overall0.35
Poverty rate1.9%
Median income$119,129
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
39
th percentile
Low
Within county
52
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Centreville and the region
Centroid at 38.8368, -77.4130 · click any tract to drill in
Why Willow Springs scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,061 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2
How Willow Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 35
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 43%Socioeconomic
- 15%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 238Total filings over 4 yrs
- 8.90%Avg annual filing rate
- 21.4%Peak (2013)
- 25Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 47% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Willow Springs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.2%Food insecurity
- 6.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 7.6%No health insurance
- 13.6%Frequent mental distress
- 21.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Willow Springs
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, about half of renters here are cost-burdened.
Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. SNAP participation runs 6.2% against 15.2% nationally.
Court records carry 238 eviction filings across 4 observed years. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Food insecurity runs 10.2% against 17.8% nationally. At $2,061 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Centreville commands.
Filings peaked in 2013 at 21.4% of renter households. In a typical year about 8.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 40th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059490501
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059490501?
Census tract 51059490501 in the Willow Springs neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059490501?
Median gross rent is $2,061/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059490501?
1.9% of residents in tract 51059490501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,344.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059490501?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 15th, minority 77th, housing 32th.
Q5
Is tract 51059490501 considered part of Willow Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059490501 fall within Willow Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059490501?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 238 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059490501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.90% of renter households, peaking at 21.4% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059490501 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059490501 compare to Centreville overall?
Tract 51059490501 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Centreville
Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
London Towne
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Uniontown
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51059490101
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
London Towne
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
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