Neighborhood · Ranked #25,210 of 84,120 nationally

Centre Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Centreville

Tract 51059491202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,768 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 51059491202 sits in the Centre Heights neighborhood of Centreville, Virginia. It has a population of 1,768 and an eviction-risk score of 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). 46% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 20% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $2,258/month against a median household income of $86,107 — roughly 31% rent-to-income at the medians.

Risk score

5.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 45% Stable renters 54% Owners 1%

Tract context

Occupied units1,005

Renter share99.3%

SVI overall0.31

Poverty rate8.5%

Median income$86,107

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8407, -77.4385 · click any tract to drill in

Why Centre Heights scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Centreville

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

8.5% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$2,258 rent vs county FMR

4.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Centreville

6.7

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.7

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Centreville

5.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from Centreville

5.2

How Centre Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 31

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

55%Socioeconomic
3%Household composition
61%Racial/ethnic minority
37%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

209Total filings over 4 yrs
6.83%Avg annual filing rate
8.8%Peak (2011)
52Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2011 — 2016

Filings dropped 22% over the past 4 months.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Centre Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.7%Housing insecurity
6.8%Utility-shutoff threat
13.8%Food insecurity
9.2%SNAP enrollment
8.0%Transit barriers
10.6%No health insurance
15.8%Frequent mental distress
23.6%Any disability

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491202?

Census tract 51059491202 in the Centre Heights neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51059491202?

Median gross rent is $2,258/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491202?

8.5% of residents in tract 51059491202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,768.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 3th, minority 61th, housing 37th.

Is tract 51059491202 considered part of Centre Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491202 fall within Centre Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 209 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.83% of renter households, peaking at 8.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51059491202 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51059491202 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059491202 scores 5.8/10 — higher than the parent city of Centreville at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.