Within parent city
46
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally
Centreville Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51059490101 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,462 · 72% of tract blocks fall in Centreville
Centreville anchors census tract 51059490101, which lands at 5.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 67th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
67% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 58% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,784 a month against an average household income of $143,750 a year, roughly 15% of income at the averages. Renters make up 37% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units2,065
Renter share37.4%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate8.7%
Median income$143,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
22
th percentile
Low
National
6
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Centreville and the region
Centroid at 38.8631, -77.4391 · click any tract to drill in
Why Centreville scores 1.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.7% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,784 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2
How Centreville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 39%Socioeconomic
- 83%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 50%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 116Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.75%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.2%Peak (2016)
- 43Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 34% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.5%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.6%Food insecurity
- 7.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 7.3%No health insurance
- 13.5%Frequent mental distress
- 24.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Centreville
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 6.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Centreville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 116 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 4.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.2% of renter households in 2016.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059490101
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059490101?
Census tract 51059490101 in Centreville scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059490101?
Median gross rent is $1,784/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059490101?
8.7% of residents in tract 51059490101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,462.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059490101?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 83th, minority 72th, housing 50th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059490101?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 116 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059490101 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.75% of renter households, peaking at 7.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059490101 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059490101 compare to Centreville overall?
Tract 51059490101 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Centreville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Centreville
Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
2.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
2.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
London Towne
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Uniontown
1.8
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
1.6
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
London Towne
1.5
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
1.5
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
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