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Census Tract · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally

Centreville Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51059490101 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,462 · 72% of tract blocks fall in Centreville

Census tract 51059490101 covers part of Centreville, VA, and scores 4.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,462. Severe burden reaches 58%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25% Stable renters 12% Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units2,065
Renter share37.4%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate8.7%
Median income$143,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
46 th percentile
Rank, 46th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 14 tracts In Centreville
Moderate
Within county
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#111 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Elevated
Within state
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#977 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
National
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#47,371 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8631, -77.4391 · click any tract to drill in

Why Centreville scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.7% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,784 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2

How Centreville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Centreville risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.14.1This tracttract 490101Centreville: 4.14.1Centrevilleparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 59

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 116Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 4.75%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.2%Peak (2016)
  • 43Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594901012011: 32 filings (5.15/100 renter HHs)2012: 21 filings (3.38/100 renter HHs)2013: 20 filings (3.22/100 renter HHs)2016: 43 filings (7.24/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 34% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Centreville

Cost burden runs roughly two in three here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The clearest offset is economic stress at 2.2/10. At $1,784 a month, rents run 22% under what the rest of Centreville commands.

On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.7/10.

Court records carry 116 eviction filings across 4 observed years. SNAP participation runs 7.2% against 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity runs 10.6% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 7.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.7% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 44th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 6.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $143,750, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059490101

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059490101?

Census tract 51059490101 in Centreville scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059490101?

Median gross rent is $1,784/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059490101?

8.7% of residents in tract 51059490101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,462.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059490101?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 83th, minority 72th, housing 50th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059490101?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 116 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059490101 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.75% of renter households, peaking at 7.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 51059490101 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51059490101 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059490101 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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