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Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

Centre Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Centreville

Tract 51059491303 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,145 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Census tract 51059491303 covers part of the Centre Heights area of Centreville, VA, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,145 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.9/10.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 23% Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units1,476
Renter share33.5%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate7.7%
Median income$121,009

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Centre Heights
Very Low
Within parent city
69 th percentile
Rank, 69th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 14 tracts In Centreville
Elevated
Within county
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#97 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Elevated
Within state
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#854 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8344, -77.4383 · click any tract to drill in

Why Centre Heights scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.7% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$2,060 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2

How Centre Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Centre Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.34.3This tracttract 491303Centreville: 4.14.1Centrevilleparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 39

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 60Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 2.44%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.2%Peak (2016)
  • 21Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594913032011: 18 filings (3.01/100 renter HHs)2012: 14 filings (2.34/100 renter HHs)2013: 7 filings (1.17/100 renter HHs)2016: 21 filings (3.24/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 17% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Centre Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Centre Heights

32% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. 14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.

Court records carry 60 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.

At $2,060 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Centreville commands. Filings peaked in 2016 at 3.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.4% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 4.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $121,009. 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491303

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491303?

Census tract 51059491303 in the Centre Heights neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491303?

Median gross rent is $2,060/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491303?

7.7% of residents in tract 51059491303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,145.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491303?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 27th, minority 77th, housing 36th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491303 considered part of Centre Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491303 fall within Centre Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491303?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 60 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491303 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.44% of renter households, peaking at 3.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491303 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491303 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059491303 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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