Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Greens of Fair Lakes Eviction Risk: Lower , Greenbriar
Tract 51059491502 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,768 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 51059491502 covers part of the Greens of Fair Lakes area of Chantilly, VA, and scores 3.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,768 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.1/10.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units2,038
Renter share1.7%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate4.2%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
26
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Greenbriar and the region
Centroid at 38.8641, -77.4116 · click any tract to drill in
Why Greens of Fair Lakes scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.2% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Greenbriar
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Greenbriar
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Greenbriar
4.7
How Greens of Fair Lakes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.66%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.6%Peak (2016)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 400% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Greens of Fair Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.7%Housing insecurity
- 2.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.5%Food insecurity
- 3.0%SNAP enrollment
- 3.5%Transit barriers
- 3.8%No health insurance
- 10.3%Frequent mental distress
- 18.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Greens of Fair Lakes
SNAP participation runs 3.0% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 11 filings here across 4 tracked years. Running hot, regional political climate reads 7.1/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.8 points.
Adults with no health insurance runs 3.8% against 11.3% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 10.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 7.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 31% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 2% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.3/10.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491502?
Census tract 51059491502 in the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491502?
4.2% of residents in tract 51059491502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,768.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 19th, minority 61th, housing 2th.
Q4
Is tract 51059491502 considered part of Greens of Fair Lakes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491502 fall within Greens of Fair Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.66% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059491502 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059491502 compare to Greenbriar overall?
Tract 51059491502 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Greenbriar at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Greenbriar; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Greenbriar
Top eight tracts in Greenbriar ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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