Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,269 of 84,120 nationally
Fairlee Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oakton
Tract 51059461603 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,099 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Census tract 51059461603 sits in the Fairlee neighborhood of Oakton, Virginia. It has a population of 5,099 and an eviction-risk score of 5.0/10 (Moderate tier). 30% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 21% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $2,364/month against a median household income of $146,058 — roughly 19% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
5.0
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units2,291
Renter share44.1%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate2.3%
Median income$146,058
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
29
th percentile
Low
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oakton and the region
Centroid at 38.8712, -77.2721 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairlee scores 5.0
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oakton
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,364 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oakton
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oakton
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oakton
3.5
How Fairlee compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 12%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Fairlee. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 3.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.2%SNAP enrollment
- 4.4%Transit barriers
- 5.3%No health insurance
- 11.9%Frequent mental distress
- 18.2%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51059461603
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059461603?
Census tract 51059461603 in the Fairlee neighborhood scores 5.0/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059461603?
Median gross rent is $2,364/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059461603?
2.3% of residents in tract 51059461603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,099.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059461603?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 32th, minority 68th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 51059461603 considered part of Fairlee?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059461603 fall within Fairlee (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059461603 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059461603 compare to Oakton overall?
Tract 51059461603 scores 5.0/10 — right in line with the parent city of Oakton at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oakton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Oakton
Top eight tracts in Oakton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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