Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Cobbdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oakton
Tract 51059461802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,214 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Tract 51059461802 sits in the Cobbdale area of Oakton eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.1/10.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units2,450
Renter share43.8%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate4.5%
Median income$116,382
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
55
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oakton and the region
Centroid at 38.8720, -77.3040 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cobbdale scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oakton
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.5% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,481 rent vs county FMR
5.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oakton
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oakton
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oakton
3.5
How Cobbdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 36%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 55%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 139Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.51%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.9%Peak (2016)
- 55Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 49% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cobbdale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.3%Food insecurity
- 4.5%SNAP enrollment
- 4.6%Transit barriers
- 5.5%No health insurance
- 12.3%Frequent mental distress
- 19.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cobbdale
roughly one in two of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. 13% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
SNAP participation runs 4.5% against 15.2% nationally. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 139 evictions over 4 years of observation. Housing insecurity runs 6.8% against 14.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $2,481, 9% above the Oakton average.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 5.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 3.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.3/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059461802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059461802?
Census tract 51059461802 in the Cobbdale neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059461802?
Median gross rent is $2,481/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059461802?
4.5% of residents in tract 51059461802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,214.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059461802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 36th, minority 64th, housing 55th.
Q5
Is tract 51059461802 considered part of Cobbdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059461802 fall within Cobbdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059461802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 139 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059461802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.51% of renter households, peaking at 5.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059461802 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059461802 compare to Oakton overall?
Tract 51059461802 scores 4/10, right in line with the parent city of Oakton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oakton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Oakton
Top eight tracts in Oakton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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