Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Fairlee Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oakton
Tract 51059461801 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,808 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 4.1/10, tract 51059461801 in the Fairlee area of Oakton, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,808 residents. Cost burden runs 12% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 54%
Tract context
Occupied units759
Renter share45.8%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate6.5%
Median income$117,962
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oakton and the region
Centroid at 38.8740, -77.2915 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairlee scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oakton
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.5% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$2,409 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oakton
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oakton
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oakton
3.5
How Fairlee compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 3%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 11%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 7Total filings over 4 yrs
- 0.82%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.8%Peak (2013)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Fairlee. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.5%Food insecurity
- 4.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 5.8%No health insurance
- 12.4%Frequent mental distress
- 19.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairlee
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.6/10. Disability prevalence runs 19.1% against 31.5% nationally. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.
SNAP participation runs 4.7% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 7 evictions over 4 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2013, when 1.8% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 0.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 44th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely. Average gross rent is $2,409, close to the Oakton average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059461801
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059461801?
Census tract 51059461801 in the Fairlee neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059461801?
Median gross rent is $2,409/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 12% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059461801?
6.5% of residents in tract 51059461801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,808.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059461801?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 19th, minority 67th, housing 11th.
Q5
Is tract 51059461801 considered part of Fairlee?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059461801 fall within Fairlee (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059461801?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059461801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.82% of renter households, peaking at 1.8% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059461801 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059461801 compare to Oakton overall?
Tract 51059461801 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Oakton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oakton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Oakton
Top eight tracts in Oakton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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